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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors Market dynamics are almost exclusively bearish and our key “lines in the sand” on the major indexes are being violated amid the escalating Russia/Ukraine war. This includes 4257 on the S&P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have been below the important $209 and $134 levels, respectively, since mid-January. As long as prices are below the aforementio...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). Considering these breakouts along with ongoing healthy market dynamics, we continue to believe we have officially entered a new broad-based bull market. Materials Breaking Out To New Highs, Joins Other Cyclicals. Materials (XLB) is the latest Sector to break out to new 2021 highs, providing more ev...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Long-Term Shift To Value Underway We believe the weight of the evidence suggests a mixed, but overall constructive market, and we continue to favor buying pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&P 500. We also explain why we believe value's outperformance is in its early stages. S&P 500. The S&P 500 has pulled back after being extended as it ran into resistance at the megaphone pattern. We believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities and we are constructive as long as the S&P ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bulls Still In Control Supported by several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish and believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · Zero Breakdowns. Major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Small- and mid-caps) remain in uptrends and not one S&P 500 Sector is breaking down. The absence of breakdowns is bullish. · Breadth Remains Healthy. Breadth indicators including advance/decline (A/D) lines and the percentage of stocks above their 200-day MAs continue...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alte...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The major averages (S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq) are showing signs of stalling out, with all breaking below uptrends that began at the lows of March. While we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves, this could very well be the beginning of the meaningful pullback that we have been concerned about. Price action today and in the coming week will help offer major clues as to whether this is yet another buying opportunity or a near-term top. We believe this is more likely to be the latter and wo...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Examining Prior Extended Periods Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. • Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Rec...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Insights: Copper Miners are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Copper Miners are Bottoming -- Add Exposure The weight of the evidence continues to point to global equities beginning a new leg higher as the global economy shows signs of troughing. Copper prices are also showing signs of bottoming and should continue to benefit from an improving global economy. Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels. • EM Equities, Global Interest Rates, Copper, Copper/Gold Ratio Bottoming. These are just a...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond prox...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Macro Vision: U.S. Equity Strategy

The S&P 500 continues its march higher, however the troops have been unable to keep up with the generals and with this is an ounce of concern. Sending the generals into battle often ends up with no more leaders. Our view of the markets is to deploy a barbell approach of growth and safety. While growth continues to outperform, it does so without the small-caps. Meanwhile utilities and staples continue to march just behind the growth areas of the market, and have been unable to reach new RS highs ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

As market participants attempt to digest the Trump/Xi G20 meeting and resulting trade cease-fire, the S&P 500 remains below logical resistance at 2,964. While a breakout would not be surprising, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. • Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. Helping lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out is the fact that several key cyclical areas of the market are either making lower highs or remain below resistance. Until we s...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

Key Points: • The U.S. dollar is breaking its 16-month uptrend and is declining through its 200-day moving average and Gold is breaking to 6-year price highs. RS appears to be staging a reversal at a support level. (ex. GC00, GDX) • A number of Healthcare Sector names are breaking out or staging reversals. (ex. ITGR, CHE, XRAY, OMCL, MOH, WCG, ARWR, INCY, GILD, VRTX, IQV, MEDP, and CTLT)

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

Key Points: • Gold appears to be developing a potential head-and-shoulders bottom. A break above the $128 level would be very bullish. (ex. GLD and GDX) • A number of restaurants are bullishly inflecting, trending up and to the right. (ex. JACK, DIN, SHAK, and YUM) • REIT's continue to be leadership (ex. PSB, HCP, HR, WELL, ARE, ESS, MAA, AMT, CCI, and SBAC)

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

The good outweighs the bad Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish. At the same time, biotech has succumbed to weakness within Health Care -- a point for the bears as it is one aspect that puts a damper on risk sentiment. Overa...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 testing YTD lows The S&P 500 remains on shaky ground, recently slicing through 2,600, and now testing YTD lows. We view the YTD lows (~2,530) as an important area of support and some sort of a bounce, or at least a pause, is to be expected. The question is whether this level ultimately holds. Our outlook remains cautious and we put a high probability on a breakdown to new lows given weak longer-term internals and continued leadership of defensive Sectors, while banks and small-caps are ...

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