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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials (currently our favorite areas). Meanwhile, some of our big picture "lines in the sand" are being violated, including the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) tests critical support at $207.50...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Insights: Bullish Stocks

Overweight EM vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains bullish from a price perspective as it breaks above 2-year resistance to new all-time highs; as long as price is above base support near 65,700, we are bullish from a price perspective. Additionally, the MSCI EM vs. EAFE ratio remains in an uptrend -- remain overweight EM relative to EAFE. We continue to attribute much of EM's outperformance to the downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weaknes...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Int'l Equity Strategy In our October 1 Int'l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Corrective Phase Continues As US Dollar Rises; Japan Showing Strength In our most recent Int'l Compass (9/11/20) we highlighted our belief that global equities (MSCI ACWI) were going through a corrective phase -- this remains true today. Additionally, we view the break above 94 in the US dollar (DXY) as a concerning development for global equities, and if $77 fails to hold on ACWI-US, the next stop is likely to be $75 and the 200-day MA. · US Dollar (DXY); Broad Global Indexes. Short-t...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alte...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Battleground Spot For Global Equities Last week we highlighted what appeared to be rising wedge breakdowns in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes, and suggested some consolidation made sense as we get a feel for how the process of re-opening the economy is going. It ended up being a very brief consolidation period and all horizontal support levels held strong. With all the aforementioned indexes breaking above the resistance levels that we highlighted last week, it tells us momentum...

603609 MEDIATEK INC.
RTO LIAONING WELLHOPE AGRI-TECH (A)
RENTOKIL INITIAL PLC
600132 ROYAL VOPAK NV
600763 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
HGNC TOPCHOICE MEDICAL CORP. CLASS A
4684 HENGAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP CO. LTD.
9449 OBIC CO. LTD.
7532 GMO INTERNET INC.
ATM PAN PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION
600276 A2 MILK COMPANY LTD.
2782 JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE CO. LTD. CLASS A
DOM SERIA CO. LTD.
06808 DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
002567 SUN ART RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
002507 TANGRENSHEN GROUP (A)
01268 CHONGQING FULING ZHACAI GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603899 CHINA MEIDONG AUTO HOLDINGS LTD.
603939 SHANGHAI M&G STATIONERY INC.
600519 YIFENG PHARMACY CHAIN CO LTD CLASS A
6920 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
2326 LASERTEC CORP.
035420 DIGITAL ARTS INC.
2345 NAVER CORP.
7113 KUSHIM
2454 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
3023 ALL ABOUT
MGLU3 RASA
MERS MAGAZINE LUIZA S.A.
139480 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO.
002714 E-MART INC.
EEM MUYUAN FOODS CO. LTD. CLASS A
002127 ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
300308 NANJI E-COMMERCE CO. LTD. CLASS A
TSGI ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT CO. LTD. CLASS A
EFA STARS GROUP INC
00839 ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
6544 CHINA EDUCATION GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
CUERVO JAPAN ELEVATOR SERVICE HOLDINGS
603517 BECLE SAB DE CV
1579 JUEWEI FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
603707 NIKKEI225 BULL 2X ETF
NPN NANJING KING-FRIEND BIOCHEMICAL PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD. CLASS A
06169 NUVEEN PENNSYLVANIA MUNICIPAL VALUE FUND
ACWX CHINA YUHUA EDUCATION CORP. LTD.
688266 ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX US ETF
300755 SUZHOU ZELGEN BIOPHARMACEUTICALS CO.
LTD.
VATS LIQUOR CHAIN STORE MANAGEMENT (A)
Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Emerging Markets, Retail Several recent positive developments are encouraging and incrementally improve our outlook, however there are several other items on our bull market wish list that have yet to be checked off. Our outlook remains neutral. • EM, Retail Bottoming. Bullish price and RS reversals in EM (EEM) is a very positive signal for the broad market as it indicates improving risk appetites. After all, it is one of the riskiest asset classes. Bottoming price and RS in ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Hanging in the balance Last week's worse-than-expected economic data further spooked investors and reignited global growth concerns. Despite the many potential risks that we can point to for this market and the economy, thus far we are not seeing any technical breakdowns, and until we do, our neutral outlook remains appropriate. • Cyclicals not breaking down. Key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market such as small-caps (IWM), banks (KBE), and transports (IYT) are not breaking down. As long as...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Energy to Market Weight Better economic data and optimism surrounding US-China trade (notwithstanding last Friday) has put a floor under Treasury yields and has led investors to take profits from large-caps, growth, and defensive areas of the market and migrate to small-caps, value, and cyclical segments of the market. While this shift has been a welcomed sight for the prospects of a broad-based move higher, several key risk-on areas of the market have thus far failed to break above r...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Testing 1-month resistance All of the major averages (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) are testing key 1-month resistance levels. This test of short-term resistance comes despite new developments which continue to be of the negative variety, making it a logical area for the market to retreat. As a result, we remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook. • Negative developments continue. Copper exhibits signs of breaking down below the key $2.54-2.55 level, the small- vs. large-cap ratio (IJR/SPY...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Market at key inflection point, still vulnerable We remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook as indicators continue to send mixed signals. By and large, new developments have been negative, but many areas we often look to in order to gauge risk sentiment - which also give us clues to where the market is likely headed next - are testing important support levels. • Negative developments. Several negative developments support our belief that the market may be poised for further weakness,...

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