A director at Nishat Chunian Power Limited bought 447,500 shares at 14.524PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Nishat Chunian Power Ltd (NCPL) posted Q3 FY 19 NPAT of PKR751mn (EPS: PKR2.05), down 9% yoy and 21% qoq. This took 9M FY 19 NPAT to PKR2,605mn (EPS: PKR7.09), flat yoy. Results were accompanied by a second interim dividend of PKR1.0/sh, with overall payout rising to PKR2.0/sh. While finance costs continue to eat into NCPL’s overall profitability (Q3 FY 19 operating profits up 3% yoy), we are particularly encouraged by the surprise payout. This comes after the recent PKR200bn energy sukuk issu...
Power generation during Feb’19 dropped 4.2%yoy to 6,687GWh (9,951MW), with furnace oil (FO) based generation dropping 81%yoy (though from a small base) and LNG based generation falling 16% yoy. On the other hand, Hydel and coal-based power rose 12% and 6% yoy respectively. That said, the contribution from LNG in the mix was a high 17% vs. just 2% for FO.
The IMS Power Universe is expected to post 2QFY19F NPAT of PKR7.5bn, up 11% yoy, but down 5% qoq. The increase in earnings from last year is attributable to 21% yoy weaker PKR, which will more than offset lower O&M savings (drop in dispatch factors ranging from 30-60ppt yoy). We expect payouts to remain inconsistent across the sector, with KAPCO expected to pay a first interim cash dividend of PKR4.5/sh vs PKR4.3/sh in 1HFY18. HUBC has recently reverted to its half yearly payout pattern, and ...
The IMS Textile Universe is expected to post combined unconsolidated 1QFY19 earnings of PKR2.12bn, up 2.7x yoy. The expected increase in earnings will be on the back of (i) 18% yoy weaker PKR, (ii) healthy primary margins, and (iii) higher other income, courtesy exchange gains.
We expect NPL to post FY18 EPS of PKR9.41, up 15%YoY. On quarterly basis, EPS is expected to improve by 23%YoY/22%QoQ to PKR2.58 in 4QFY18. We expect NPL to announce final DPS of PKR1.25. For NCPL, we project FY18 EPS of PKR9.42, up 15%YoY. On quarterly basis, EPS is expected to grow 3%YoY/7%QoQ to PKR2.4 in 4QFY18. Like its peer, NCPL is also likely to announce a disappointing DPS of PKR1.25. We have updated our investment cases with revision in exchange rate forecasts and higher risk free...
We update our investment case with revision in exchange rate forecast and higher risk free rate taking our Jun-19 PT to PKR35/share (from earlier PKR33/sh). Besides, we expect PKR depreciation to raise our FY19 EPS projection by 13% to PKR11.0. FO footprint may likely reduce with new coal and LNG power plants coming online during FY19. In this backdrop, we maintain NCPL’s expected capacity utilization at 37% for FY19 compared with 64% in FY18 which would reduce operational fuel savings by 20%...
We revisit our investment case on Nishat IPPs, while incorporating revised USD/PKR and Furnace oil price assumptions. With USD hedged ROEs and fuel savings and penal income linked to FO price, this has led to an upward earnings revision for both IPPs to the tune of 10-12% over next 3 years. However, we have revised down our DPS estimates in the face of immediate cash constraints. Our new TPs for NPL and NCPL are PRs36/sh and PRs25/sh respectively, implying a Buy call on NPL. We prefer NPL gi...
The power generation during Mar’18 clocked in at 12,132MW, up 15%YoY/25%MoM. The generation from FO based sources clocked in 1,965MW, down 43%YoY, but improved 2.4xMoM. The FO based IPPs are expected to operate on a higher level, in the upcoming quarter, with their full year utilization levels expected to fall close to our expectation. However, the rising interest rates scenario make D/Y of select IPPs unattractive. KAPCO offers a D/Y of 16.5% in FY18F (after a 10% haircut to full year DPS), ...
We expect IMS IPP Universe to post cumulative NPAT of PRs6.7bn in 3QFY18, down 3%YoY/3%QoQ. Lower dispatches (down 31%YoY) and 16% YoY higher finance cost is expected to offset the impact of expected high penal income and PKR depreciation. In case of HUBC, earnings are expected to be flattish despite steep decline in dispatch levels, courtesy lack of overhauling expenses. KAPCO’s earnings will be dragged by circular debt, while Nishat IPPs will likely book lower O&M savings. Nonetheless, N...
In a recent development Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has approved partial repayment of PKR80bn (15% of total energy debt) which should partially reduce the cash crunch and likley allow resumption of cash dividend by small listed IPPs. Out of the total amount ~PKR35-40bn would flow to IPPs while ~PKR15-20bn will be paid to Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and gas companies. We project 5-11% reduction in overdue payments for NPL, NCPL, HUBC. Downstream sector would also be modestly impacted w...
Nishat Chunian Power Ltd (NCPL) announced 2QFY18 NPAT of PRs849mn (EPS: PRs2.31), up 32% YoY but down 5% QoQ. This takes the 1HFY18 earnings to PRs1.74bn (EPS: PRs4.75), up 26% YoY. The results were slightly above expectation. NCPL skipped dividend as per our expectation similar to 1QFY18. This is in contrast to PRs1.50/sh interim cash dividend paid in 1HFY17. The sequential decline in earnings is attributable to a dip in dispatch factor which was 60% as opposed to 87% in the previous quarter...
We have forecasted power demand to grow at 5%pa, assumed a structural 1,500MW minimum deficit level and forecasted plant utilization levels in order of fuel cost. This results in curtailment of the power deficit by FY19-20. We expect LPL’s utilization levels to fall from 53.3% in 2017 to 27.9% in 2018 and 17.5% in 2019. This results in a 50-60% increase in FY18 and FY19 earnings and a 50% increase in dividends. We expect utilization levels for NCPL/NPL to fall from 76.8%/72.5% in FY17 to 62...
In a bid to ease-off external sector woes, the GoP introduced upgraded measures extending further relief to export oriented sectors, imposing import duty on a wide range of discretionary goods. In this regard, the GoP has approved a revised export package for FY18, removing growth barometers for 50% export incentives, while adding a further 50% incentive on registering 10%YoY accretion in exports over the period. Also announced was an additional 2% duty drawback on exports made to previously unt...
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
​According to Nepra, generation from Jul-Oct’16 increased 4%YoY to 14,126MW on account of uptick in generation of (i) RFO based plants, and (ii) Nuclear plants. Gas based generation declined moderately, where seemingly LNG provision to IPPs have not increased substantially from previous year, in our view.Increase in RFO prices (in and of itself) will not significantly contribute to circular debt buildup as cost of RFO based generation is still 50% lower than peak levels seen in 2013. But, gi...
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