MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW EQUITIES TO BE CLOSED ANOTHER WEEK WHILE VALUE STOCKS OUTPERFORMThe CBR has announced that equity trading will be closed another week. Possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are the focal point for Russia investors this week, while main themes elsewhere include resumed rotation to value stocks and above $100/bbl oil prices, all of which would be benefiting Russia in a normal market environment, but not this one.STORIES> Government allocates R1 trln to support th...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ТОРГИ В МОСКВЕ НЕ БУДУТ ПРОВОДИТЬСЯ ЕЩЕ НЕДЕЛЮ; НА ГЛОБАЛЬНОМ РЫНКЕ ОПЕРЕЖАЮЩУЮ ДИНАМИКУ ПОКАЗЫВАЮТ АКЦИИ СТОИМОСТИЦБ РФ принял решение еще неделю не возобновлять торги на МосБирже в секции фондового рынка. На текущей неделе в центре внимания будут возможные переговоры между Россией и Украиной. НОВОСТИ> Правительство выделило 1 трлн руб. на поддержку экономики> Нефтяные котировки консолидировались около минимумов прошлой недели в преддверии многочисленных событий на этой ...
We continue to track the Ivanovs' savings and spending patterns, as well as their perceptions, to get an idea of how entire sectors and individual companies are performing and might perform in the future. We also look at competition among the public retailers. The main conclusions from the most recent survey are as follows:> The fieldwork took place from November 22 to December 10, when the number of new Covid-19 cases in Russia was close to a historic high, inflation was on the rise, the ruble ...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETAlthough demand is starting to return for Russian sovereign Eurobonds maturing after 2035, these issues still closed 2.0-2.5 pp lower in price yesterday. Mid-dated paper, meanwhile, remains under selling pressure. GOVERNMENT DEBTYesterday, the OFZ market was highly volatile, as we had expected. By the middle of the day, OFZ yields had risen 5-10 bps relative to Monday's closing levels, but by the end of the day yields had fallen to reach 5-7 bps lower than the previous close. ...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГВчера начал восстанавливаться спрос на российские суверенные еврооблигации со сроками погашения после 2035 года, в то время как среднесрочные выпуски по-прежнему остаются под давлением из-за продаж. Впрочем, длинные выпуски вчера подешевели на 2-2,5 п. п. ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВчера на рынке ОФЗ, как мы и ожидали, наблюдалась высокая волатильность. К середине дня доходности выросли на 5-10 б. п. относительно уровней понедельника, однако по итогам дня снизилис...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA DRAGGED BY GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS, GLOBE BY RATES AND INFLATIONGlobal markets saw significant declines on rate and inflation concerns, the MSCI ACWI falling 1.6% with weakness particularly in growth stocks. Despite relatively better appetites for energy and other cyclicals, Russia was the worst performing EM with a 7.3% drop on the RTS to 1,367. Geopolitical headlines will likely remain in focus for the Russian market, as detailed in our stories below, while inflation and ...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НА РОССИЙСКИЙ АКЦИИ ОКАЗЫВАЮТ ДАВЛЕНИЕ ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ РИСКИ, НА ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ РЫНКИ - ОПАСЕНИЯ НАСЧЕТ СТАВОК И ИНФЛЯЦИИГлобальные рынки вчера понесли большие потери из-за обеспокоенности ростом ставок и инфляцией. Индекс MSCI ACWI снизился на 1,6%, сильнее всего пострадали акции роста. Несмотря на относительно неплохой спрос на бумаги нефтегазового и прочих циклических секторов, Россия завершила вчерашние торги хуже всех развивающихся рынков: индекс РТС упал на 7,3% до 1 36...
PIK Group posted its 4Q21 operating results yesterday. The results missed our forecasts but exceeded the company's 2021 guidance. PIK confirmed its upbeat outlook for 2022 given the strong demand and the material increase in its backlog in 2021. We decreased our target price for PIK by 2% to R1,500/share, but we upgrade the stock to a BUY. The stock is down around 20% since our initiation in mid-September 2021 and looks more attractive at the current levels.> Below our expectations on sales volu...
The general evaluation of PIK-SPETSIALIZIROVANNYI (RU), a company active in the Home Construction industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date January 4, 2022, the closing price was RUB 1...
Мы продолжаем изучать динамику и структуру расходов и сбережений Ивановых, а также их восприятие экономической ситуации, чтобы прогнозировать перспективы развития различных секторов российской экономики и отдельных компаний. В этом выпуске мы также анализируем конкуренцию между российскими публичными продуктовыми розничными сетями. Выводы по итогам нашего исследования изложены ниже.> Опросы для данного обзора проводились с 3 по 20 сентября, когда число инфицированных коронавирусом в России продо...
MSCI will release the results of the November semiannual rebalancing after markets close tomorrow, November 11. The rebalancing comes into effect after markets close on Tuesday, November 30. In this rebalancing, we expect MSCI to use a baseline market cap threshold for Russia of $4.5-4.7 bln. We also expect Rusal to be included in the MSCI Russia Standard Index, while below we discuss the very low but non-zero probabilities for entry for PIK Group and MMK. We anticipate no exclusions. In the MSC...
MARKET COMMENT - US RECOVERY, DOLLAR DECLINE SET UP A BETTER OUTLOOK THAN YESTERDAY'SMost markets were weak earlier in the day, but a recovery in the US set up a brighter outlook this morning. Weak US industrial production and some reversal in energy prices appeared to ease the most immediate of inflation and rates concerns for stock investors, and growth stocks have tended to lead in the US yesterday and in Asia this morning. The RTS declined 0.8% to 1,877, while today most Russian and global i...
MARKET COMMENT - CAUTIOUS MOOD AHEAD OF US AND RUSSIAN CPI, HEAVY CONFERENCE SCHEDULEGlobal equities trimmed back for a third consecutive day, the MSCI ACWI declining 0.3%. A mixed picture from the latest IMF outlook and slightly bearish remarks from two top Fed officials added to the recent string of inflation and growth concerns. Russia slightly underperformed, the RTS declining 0.7% to 1,870. Most global and Russian indicators are slightly down this morning ahead of US and Russian CPI reports...
PIK Group posted its 3Q21 operating results on Monday and held a conference call to discuss them yesterday. While the results were only okay given the worsened backdrop for the sector, the company reiterated its 2021 sales guidance and even saw some upside risk. > While the 3Q21 operating results showed a slowdown in y-o-y sales growth in monetary terms (to 19% from 89% in 2Q21), new contract sales were up 2% Q-o-Q (and 6% in m2 terms) despite higher mortgage rates and less generous terms for th...
MARKET COMMENT - CLIMBING COMMODITIES LEAVE INDEXES UNSTEADY, RUSSIA RESILIENTIndexes trended flat to higher early in the day, but a fresh round of worries about inflation and growth unsteadied the US session. That combined with local regulatory news has left APAC indexes weak this morning, and overall the picture looks unfavorable for risk assets early today, with key futures and indexes down 0.5-1.6%. Meanwhile, Russia was resilient yesterday with a 1.2% gain on the RTS to 1,882, though slight...
PIK shares were exposed to volatility following the 4.3% SPO on September 29 – October 1. The downward pressure was not justified, in our view, considering that housing market fundamentals remain strong and that PIK is a key beneficiary. The company has a solid growth profile, business efficiency, a comfortable debt position, and new initiatives that are potentially game-changing for the real estate market. The 3Q21 operating results (October 14) and potential inclusion into the MSCI Russia I...
MARKET COMMENT - CHINA POWER WOES, GERMAN ELECTION, CENTRAL BANKS IN FOCUSMost markets edged slightly down on Friday, though catalysts were few. The RTS slipped 0.3% to 1,748. Despite concerns over Chinese power outages, the global and Russian backdrops look positive this morning, with RTS futures for instance up 0.4%. The German election and Etalon's results are also in focus, while central banks and PMIs dominate the week's schedule.STORIES> EM equity inflows rise; Russia sees net outflow due ...
We reinitiate our coverage of the Russian real estate sector and expand it to include PIK Group. While the long-term fundamentals are strong, the sector has entered a period of uncertainty, with rising interest rates and less government support. In this environment, we favor companies with a clear strategy, less reliance on mortgages, an attractive valuation, and predictable and high dividends. Hence, our preferred exposure to the sector is Etalon Group.> Market outlook. The housing market has e...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Fed vows unprecedented ‘unlimited’ stimulus, Brent up Ahead: Bounce – Modicum of irrational exuberance. What goes down, invariably, rises … sooner or later. In today’s case, sooner appears to be on the table due to life support measures and tapping into the dip. The former have been provided by the coordinated efforts/pledges of central banks, but the giver of life today features the Fed and Germany. The Fed, in an unprecedented move, vowed pledged “unlimited asset purchasesâ€, in...
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