reports
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
SentinelOne: Full Report
• SentinelOne is technically better than Crowdstrike according to the performance results of the MITRE ATT&CK Evaluation. • SentinelOne leverages greater automation and has an out-the-box solution that is proving to deliver a more scalable business model than Crowdstrike’s – evident in the former’s 127% YoY in 2Q22. • SentinelOne has a significant last-mover advantage and is using it to target Crowdstrike’s weak spots.
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
Intel: Full Report
• Substantial pessimism toward INTC is fully priced into the stock – offering a very favourable reward-to-risk. • INTC’s new strategy is seen by many as a history-repeating-itself type of story – another set of promises waiting to be broken. However, really this is a landmark strategy that will fundamentally change the way INTC operates. • INTC is an incredibly important player amid the surging demand for chips. With the new leadership and radically new strategy, INTC has a fantastic opportunit...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
SentinelOne: Short Report
• The main source of alpha in the stock of SentinelOne is understanding the complexity. In this short report, we'll breakdown the knowledge barriers of the Antivirus industry and explain why SentinelOne has a better product than market-leading Crowdstrike. • Given SentinelOne’s out-of-the-box solution and Crowdstrike’s solution that requires substantial configuration adjustments, we surmise that the former has a more scalable business which bodes very well for future growth.
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
Dropbox: Full Report
• Attractive reward-to-risk investment: a substantial value play with a potential bonus turnaround story layered on top. • DBX has subtly reinvented themselves which is largely unnoticed by the market: a new differentiated strategy and radical behind-the-scenes tech changes offer up a lot of upside. • DBX is a rare blend of a proactive and thoughtful engineering culture, with shareholder activism, and the creative and ambitious founder still leading the way.
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
Convequity June Newsletter
• More deflationary forces combined with fewer inflationary forces will equal a long period of disinflation, in our opinion. We offer some different takes and fresh insights on the inflation outlook. • Can the higher gross margins of today’s software stocks partly justify the current tech valuations? • Why is it so hard for legacy firms to switch to a cloud-first model? And can we identify the attributes that will reduce the chances of the current leading software stocks from becoming future leg...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
Okta: Full Report
• A brief review of the mega trends propelling Identity Management to growing importance within the cybersecurity industry. • OKTA’s CEO & Founder, Todd, McKinnon, has a grandiose and differentiated vision for the role of identity and aims for OKTA to define the industry’s standards. • A technical dive into the progression of identity and how it works. • An assessment of OKTA’s dominance in its core IAM market. • Assessments to ascertain the probability that OKTA will succeed in the new marke...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
FireEye: Short Report
• PE firm, STG, is acquiring FEYE's product business. The services division, Mandiant, will remain as a publicly traded entity under the ticker M. • The separation should unleash considerable value in the Mandiant business, that has been held back by non-BoB FireEye products. • Rising sophisticated attacks coupled with cybersecurity talent shortages, should create growing demand for the leading cyber threat response and remediation company. • 50% upside in the FEYE stock is very feasible from cu...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
CPaaS: Short Report (Twilio, Cloopen, Agora, & Kalerya)
• A semi-deep dive into the CPaaS market: why is it popular and how it works? • Twilio: BoB provider with developer tailwinds will extend its market leadership and valuation still looks attractive. • Cloopen Group Holdings: Chinese market dynamics are not as favourable to scale a cloud-based business and shifting from CCaaS to CPaaS offers less leverage than vice versa – Twilio’s path. • Agora: startup exposure should benefit from post-pandemic economic recovery. • Kalerya: skepticism over the...
- Jordan Lambert
Sumo Logic: Initiation & Follow-up Reports
Initiation Report Summary: Further out into 2021 we expect the intra-vaccination environments to gradually improve economic conditions which will help SUMO win back mid-market customers. Also, the shift in sales focus to larger enterprise clientele will help reaccelerate growth, boost contribution margins, improve the cash flow situation and in turn support the valuation. On a longer horizon, once 5G and IoT begin to ramp up data flow, continuous intelligence platforms like SUMO’s will be cruci...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
Okta: Short Report
• Okta’s stock hasn’t yet adjusted to reflect the significant Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion unveiled earlier in the year. • Okta’s vantage point in the identity space makes its ventures into neighbouring markets likely to succeed. • Okta is at the heart of a number of tech evolutions, is the best-of-breed identity provider, and has a fantastic runway of growth. • Despite the stock’s high multiple levels, over the long-term the downside seems truncated but the upside looks healthy –...
- Jordan Lambert
Jamf Holdings: Initiation Report
• Given employee PC choice trends, Apple’s push into business, and COVID-driven digitalization acceleration in education and healthcare, JAMF are in a prime position for the next 1 to 3 years. • The recent Wandera acquisition offers ample synergies for strong revenue performance. • The ~50% mispricing is in large part attributed to investors assuming Apple’s acquisition of Fleetsmith in 2020 is an existential threat to JAMF – we outline the very low probability that this is the case.
- Jordan Lambert
Palantir: Initial & Follow-up Research Reports
Initial Report Summary: The extraordinary trade of short and intermediate-term gains for long-term superiority has put PLTR several years ahead of the competition. In fact, currently there are no direct competitors. At present, the biggest competition is the desire for organizations to continue developing data connectivity in-house or with disparate third-party custom apps. This moat has been built upon a deep-rooted and enduring focus on extracting the best elements from humans and machines,...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
TELUS International & Qualtrics: Short Report
• A top-down analysis unveiling an upsurge in future demand for Customer Experience, or CX, services and software. • An investment thesis for why TELUS International is ideally positioned to prosper in the growing demand for CX services. • A brief look at another CX vendor called Qualtrics, that delivers CX services in SaaS form. • A brief comparative analysis of the competitive dynamics of the IT Service and Software sectors.
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
McAfee: Short Report
• We see MCFE trading at ~ 50% to intrinsic value. It’s true value is being masked by a complicated history. More investors will recognize the value potential when it becomes a consumer-only cybersecurity business. • A comparative analysis with Norton LifeLock (NLOK) unveils MCFE’s hidden value. As MCFE snatches more market share from NLOK, it will also grab more investor interest.
- Jordan Lambert
Fortinet: Initiation & Follow-up Reports
FTNT are the most accommodative SASE vendor in the industry – they can deliver unified network/security on-prem and at the edge – catering to the nuanced and complex needs of enterprises better than rivals. And from reading secondary stock research, we don’t believe the market fully acknowledges this advantage yet. We used GuruFocus’ database to search and retrieve the most-recent-quarter revenue growth and FCF margin for all U.S. listed software stocks with TTM revenue greater than $1bn and a ...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
Asana: Short Report
• Asana is trading at considerably lower multiples than other high-growth SaaS stocks. • We believe the market is discarding ASAN’s excellent core economics and being too short-sighted on the negative operating margin. • Long-term reward-to-risk is highly favourable; though may take a while for the stock to move in the anticipated direction.
- Jordan Lambert
Palo Alto Networks: Follow-up Report
- PANW is trading at a 50% to 60% discount based on sum-of-parts valuation. We estimate an intrinsic valuation of $70bn to $80bn. - CEO Arora planning spinout could unleash shareholder value. - Heightened cybersecurity awareness from SolarWinds fallout likely to boost the industry later this year. - NetSec is a cash cow and ClaiSec is experiencing rampant growth – makes for very intriguing analysis. - Arora's vision is build a cybersecurity conglomerate stitched together with BoB startups. Given...
- Jordan Lambert
- Simon He
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