Four Directors at Eldorado Gold Corporation sold after exercising options/sold 71,179 shares at between 22.441CAD and 23.890CAD. The significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades...
The Pullback Finally Begins; Testing 2-Month Supports We have discussed for months that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. While this has not happened yet (only two consecutive days so far, yesterday and Friday), it does appear to be going in that direction as the U.S. dollar (DXY) climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking abo...
More Long-Term Breakouts; Bullish Outlook Intact We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days. There is nothing that says this can't continue. With that said, once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs on the S&P 500 and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that), with next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $42...
Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist The S&P 500 is just below 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is just below $350-$355 support. Given they were only 1%-1.5% below these supports at last week's lows, we cannot call them "decisive" breakdowns quite yet. Regardless, these levels are now resistance (in addition to the 200-day MA on SPX), and they are important lines-in-the-sand moving forward. We cannot be bullish if the SPX and QQQ are below the aforementioned levels, but it would be bu...
What you need to know: • The precious metals and mining market continued to rise in April even after a sizeable outperformance of broader indices in March • M&A accelerated in the month of April following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices • This month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals, and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly Sentiment Update Fol...
SPX 4165-4200 in Play; Breadth Improving In our 3/21/23 Compass we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the S&P 500, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted would set up an opportunity to get more defensive. The S&P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend...
Awaiting Powell's Speech Today and CPI Thursday We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023. We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490). In our view, reducing risk near resistance and adding risk near support will be key to outperforming in 2023 (alongside Sector/stock selection). Shorter...
Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits. The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at their 200-day MAs/YTD downt...
Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). Considering these breakouts along with ongoing healthy market dynamics, we continue to believe we have officially entered a new broad-based bull market. Materials Breaking Out To New Highs, Joins Other Cyclicals. Materials (XLB) is the latest Sector to break out to new 2021 highs, providing more ev...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Upgrading Materials To Overweight We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. Throw in new developments which include a decisive breakdown in the US dollar, price and RS breakouts for the Materials Sector, and a bullish RS reversal for small-caps, and we continue to believe the positives h...
S&P 500 Breaking To New Highs We like to say that new highs are not a sell signal, and this time is no different. With the S&P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Seve...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Caution remains warranted We have noted several times throughout the month of August that key support levels were being tested for global equities (8/6 Compass and 8/8, 8/15, & 8/22 Int'l Compass), and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday's test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point t...
Here we go again In last week's Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite hawkish Fed takeaways, it was the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that was the bigger story, however both weighed on global equities. Needless to say, everything we highlighted last week as being at a key inflection point failed to resolve in a manner that was bullish for equities. Below we highlight several developments we are...
U.S. dollar breaking down; Gold breaking out The S&P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. Below we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. • U.S. dolla...
Technical indications mixed; Outlook remains cautious Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week's Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious, supported by several observations highlighted below. • U.S. dollar (USD) weakness coming? W...
On Feb. 22, Eldorado Gold issued full-year results for 2018. The company produced nearly 350,000 gold ounces (including precommercial production) at total operating cost of $650 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs, or AISC, of $994 per ounce. Based on management’s guidance, the near term looks pretty good. In 2019, production will rise to 390,000 to 420,000 ounces and AISC will fall to $900 to $1,000 per ounce, largely driven by the commercial start of Lamaque. 2020 looks even better, as the...
On Feb. 22, Eldorado Gold issued full-year results for 2018. The company produced nearly 350,000 gold ounces (including precommercial production) at total operating cost of $650 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs, or AISC, of $994 per ounce. Based on management’s guidance, the near term looks pretty good. In 2019, production will rise to 390,000 to 420,000 ounces and AISC will fall to $900 to $1,000 per ounce, largely driven by the commercial start of Lamaque. 2020 looks even better, as the...
Eldorado Gold's cost position has weakened as key development projects have been delayed and current mines have reached transitional stages. Because its production is concentrated in just a few mines, development plans have an outsize impact on growth and valuation.After selling much of its production, Eldorado focused on development projects to return to historical production levels. However, ongoing problems with the Greek government have hampered progress, putting the company in a tough posit...
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